[Conference at UCLA] “The Book of Royal Degrees and Russian Historical Consciousness”

“The Book of Royal Degrees and Russian Historical Consciousness”


Thursday, February 26 - Saturday, February 28, 2009



This three-day international conference, organized by Professor Gail Lenhoff (Slavic Languages and Literatures, UCLA), marks the publication of a critical edition of Russia’s first narrative history, The Book of Royal Degrees, produced in the Moscow metropolitan’s scriptorium between 1555-1564, during the reign of Ivan IV “the Terrible.” The edition was made possible by grants from the National Endowment for the Humanities (NEH) and the National Council for Eurasian and East European Research (NCEEER), with additional support provided by CMRS and the UCLA Department of Slavic Languages and Literatures.




Invited speakers, representing various academic disciplines, will present papers on the book’s treatment of Muscovite history, politics, theology, literary production, artistic subtexts and reception. Other questions to be considered include: 1) religion and governance; 2) preconditions for a “culture of history”; 3) ways in which pre-modern writers of history seek to understand, legitimize and influence the present; 4) the ways in which historical narratives such as The Book of Royal Degrees contribute to the rise of nationalism and the survival of absolute monarchies; and, 5) the uses of historical narratives in the building of a civil, democratic society.




The program is cosponsored by CMRS, the Center for European and Eurasian Studies, the UCLA Vice Chancellor for Research, and the UCLA Dean of Humanities.



•Place: Royce 314
•Time: Download the complete program. (PDF 345k)
•Advance Registration: Not required
•Fee: None
•Seating: Seating is limited. Seats available on a first-come, first-served basis.
•Parking: Parking permits are $9 from any UCLA Parking Services kiosk. Tell them you are here to attend “the Russian Historical Consciousness” Conference in Royce Hall.” You will be directed to park in the nearest available lot.
•Lodging: Information on hotels near UCLA is at www.cmrs.ucla.edu/hotels.html

[Los Angeles] Russian Winter Festival 2009

Russian Winter Festival 2009 will take place in Los Angeles from March 5th through March 6th. More information on various activities that are planned during this festival can be found at Far From Moscow website


Or at the Russian Community Information Portal: ROSTOC

[Summer School] Language and Culture in Zadar, Croatia

Language and Culture in Zadar, Croatia

May 25 – July 6, 2009


The University of Kansas Intensive Summer Language and Culture program in
Zadar, Croatia offers graduate and undergraduate students the opportunity to
study intermediate and advanced Croatian language as well as Croatian
culture and history. The six-week program not only provides language and
area studies courses, it also includes numerous teacher-accompanied
excursions in and around Zadar.




A minimum of one year of Croatian language study is required, and the
language of instruction is Croatian. Students will receive 8 hours of KU
credit and the program is FLAS eligible. The program cost for $5,270 and
includes tuition, all educational and administrative fees, accommodations,
group excursions and field trips.




*Note: Don’t wait for your FLAS decision to be made; apply now!
Application Deadline: March 1, 2009

For more information, please visit the program website.






Source:
Justine A. Hamilton
Program Coordinator
Office of Study Abroad
University of Kansas
1410 Jayhawk Blvd., Rm. 108
Lippincott Hall
Lawrence, KS 66045-7515
USA
Tel: +1 (785) 864-3742
Fax: +1 (785) 864-5040
www.studyabroad.ku.edu
justine@ku.edu

[Summer Studies] Ukrainian Language in Lviv

The Department of Modern Languages and Cultural Studies (MLCS) at the University of Alberta (Edmonton, Canada) invites applications from individuals wishing to study Ukrainian this spring in Lviv.




For information about the six-credit courses we offer, please visit http://www.arts.ualberta.ca/%7eukraina/LvivCourse.html



"Ukrainian through its Living Culture” (UKR 300/ 400) is one of several courses conducted in Europe by MLCS staff. It is open to Canadian and international students. If you do not live in Alberta, it is not necessary to attend the orientation session, which will be held on February 23. However, please do not hesitate to contact the instructor, Dr. Irene Sywenky or Dr. Pylypiuk to register your interest and/or obtain more information.



Source:
Prof. Natalia Pylypiuk, PhD
Modern Languages & Cultural Studies [www.mlcs.ca] 200 Arts, University of Alberta Edmonton, AB, Canada T6G 2E6

[Job Posting] ENDOWED CHAIRS IN POLISH HISTORY, LITERATURE, AND/OR FILM COLLEGE OF LIBERAL ARTS AND SCIENCES UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT CHICAGO

The College of Liberal Arts and Sciences at the University of Illinois at Chicago invites applications and nominations for the "Stefan and Lucy Hejna Family Chair in the History of Poland" and the "Stefan and Lucy Hejna Family Chair in Polish Language and Literature." Both positions include permanently endowed funds for research enhancements and graduate assistantships. The successful candidate will be an associate or full professor and have a strong record of scholarly and teaching accomplishments in the fields of Polish history, literature, or film studies. Period of study within these areas is open.



Located in the heart of Chicago, UIC is a Carnegie Research/Extensive University with 16,000 undergraduates, 6,500 graduate students, and 3,000 professional students. This is an exciting time for Polish Studies at UIC: we will ultimately be hiring three "Hejna" chairs in Polish studies; we have the largest undergraduate Polish program in the country; and we have a newly established graduate concentration in Central and Eastern European Studies.




Appointments are eligible to begin 16 August 2009, but search will remain open until filled. For fullest consideration, applications must be received by March 13, 2009. The salary is highly competitive based on qualifications. The University of Illinois at Chicago is an AA/EOE.



Source:
Applicants should send a full curriculum vitae, and names and full contact information of four references to:
Marsha Figaro
Chief of Staff, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences University of Illinois at Chicago
601 S. Morgan Street (MC 228)
Chicago, Illinois 60607

[Lecture] At USC by Professor Ecatherine Rai-Gonneau

The Dept. of Slavic Languages and Literatures at the University of Southern California is pleased to announce that on Tuesday, February 24 at 2 p.m. *Prof. Ecatherine Rai-Gonneau* of the Institut d'Etudes Slaves in Paris will be speaking on "Van'ka Kain, Louis-Dominique Cartouche and Jonathan Wild" (concerning the Western sources of Matvei Komarov's 18th c. bestseller /Vanka Kain/ about the notorious thief and swindler).



The lecture will take place in Taper Hall 271.



Please contact the department at 213/740-2735 for more information.

[New Journal] The Russian Cyberspace Journal

We are pleased to announce the publication of issue 1 of The Russian Cyberspace Journal, 'Virtual Power. Russian Politics and the Internet.'
Through a variety of approaches to the study of new media, 'Virtual Power'
presents a scholarly investigation of the representation and web mediation of Russia's political discourse and the most significant political events of
2008: the presidential elections and the Georgia-Ossetia conflict.



The full issue is available online at www.russian-cyberspace.org



The Russian Cyberspace Journal is a biannual online publication on Russian, Eurasian, and Central European new media, published by Russian Cyberspace, a consortium of scholars concerned with new media studies. For further information on the Russian Cyberspace project, please visit our site at www.russian-cyberspace.org .



Source:
The editors
Ekaterina Lapina-Kratasyuk (Moscow)
Ellen Rutten (Cambridge/Amsterdam)
Robert A. Saunders (New York)
Henrike Schmidt (Berlin)
Vlad Strukov (London/Leeds)

Winter 2009: Information Studies 289 Multilingual Information Sources: Slavic Studies

UCLA Library Slavic Studies Guide:

http://guides.library.ucla.edu/content.php?pid=16394

 

University of Alberta Portal

http://www.library.ualberta.ca/subject/ukrainianstudies/websites/index.cfm

Online Libraries

Russian Federation

http://www.lavra.ua/index.php?option=com_content&task=blogcategory&id=43&Itemid=108

 

http://www.gramoty.ru/

 

http://feb-web.ru/indexen.htm

 

http://lib.ru/

 

http://www.litera.ru/

 

Poland

 

Polish Digital Library

http://www.polona.pl/dlibra

 

Vendors:

1. Domestic and International and hybrid
   

   
    

   Domestic
   

   
   Russia Online, Inc.
   

            Panorama of Russia
   

   International
   

   
   Eastview
   

   
   MIPP Books
   

 

Guide: http://www.libraries.iub.edu/index.php?pageId=4897

 

Transliteration:

 

UN Scheme: http://www.eki.ee/wgrs/rom1_ru.pdf

 

GOST Standards: http://www.gsnti-norms.ru/norms/common/doc.asp?0&/norms/stands/7_79.htm

 

ALA: http://www.loc.gov/catdir/cpso/roman.html

 

Slavic Cataloguing Manual Online http://www.indiana.edu/~libslav/slavcatman/smtocs.html

 

Letopisi-Manuscripts about the history of Rus'


http://litopys.org.ua/lavrlet/lavr.htm

Digital Preservation Management: Short-Term Solutions for Long-Term Problems

Venue: ICPSR, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
Dates: May 3-8, 2009

The Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR) is now hosting the workshop curriculum originally developed at Cornell by Anne R Kenney and Nancy Y McGovern.

The application form for the workshop will be available by 9am ET on Feb 23, 2009 - there will be a link to the application form on this page until registration is full (24 participants): http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/dpm/workshops/registration.html.  

The intended audience for the workshop series is managers at organizations who are or will be responsible for digital preservation. Additional information about the workshop series and future dates are available at: http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/dpm/workshops/fiveday.html.

The workshop series has been developed with funding from NEH.

If you have questions, please contact at: digital-preservation@icpsr.umich.edu

Alternate Information Media: Birch Bark Documents of Medieval Rus'

The purpose of this post is to make our readers familiar with alternate forms of record keeping that evolved in the Northern Rus' i.e., the birch bark documents of Novgorod. These documents appears in the Eleventh century of CE and continue to circulate till fifteenth century of CE.


The purpose of these documents was to store information about various transactions that took place in Medieval Rus' society. Some of these documents folkores, or other literary works, while the others record economic transactions and business related activities.



One the site titled "Drevnerussike berestianyie gramoty" we can find a searcheable database of these documents along with an access to the digital images of the same



Source: The project of Gramoty.ru was made possible because of the generous financial support of the INTAS


Professor Jos Schaken of University of Leiden was instrumental in securing this grant and is an investigator for the site. His English language bibliography can be found at http://www.helsinki.fi/hum/slav/nwrussia/eng/biblio.htm

[Conf.] Politics and Policies of Communications and Cultures: National, Transnational and Global Perspectives

Politics and Policies of Communications and Cultures:
National, Transnational and Global Perspectives
(3rd Annual PhD Conference)
Friday 12th June 2009: 9 - 4 PM
Institute of Communication Studies, University of Leeds, UK



Call for papers





Communication politics and policies are dominant forces in shaping living cultures. Rich, vibrant and controversial forms of expression continue to emerge and their influence is increasingly transcending borders. The appearance and pervasiveness of new communication technologies is greatly accelerating this process.



Yet, the forging and evolution of cultural discourses influence the articulation and re-orient the expression of communication politics and policies.

The current tendencies appear to be primarily driven by western-oriented approaches and are often perceived as a transferrable framework to other parts of the world mainly because of their liberal, inclusive and representative tradition in contrast to more restrictive political and communication systems elsewhere.



Political, economic, cultural and social actors such as - governments, media, political parties, civil societies, transnational non-state actors and citizens - are the major players formulating these communication politics and policies outlining the cultural sphere. Although they often aim at common objectives including, among others, fostering democratization, promoting citizenship and reinforcing identities they compete for exerting their influence at different levels.



This 3rd annual PhD conference seeks to identify, discuss and understand current trends in communication and cultural politics and policies and the ways in which they influence cultures at national, transnational, regional and global levels. It also intends to analyse how the evolution of cultural discourses influences communication politics and policies.



Please send your abstract, of 250 words and a 50 words biography together with your institutional affiliation and contact details by Friday 3rd April 2009, to the following email address: ics-pg-conference@leeds.ac.uk



Source:
Institute of Communications Studies,
Houldsworth Building, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT. Tel: +44 (0)113 343 8859

Different Versions of the Same Song

I always have wondered about how to place different versions of the same song that gets sung by different singers within a normalized bibliographic universe? To this day, it is difficult for me to apply the principal of intertextuality to songs. Any thoughts? I am posting a song called Sinii Platocheck. You be the judge. This was a famous song of WW II?






Below is the newer version that is sung by Юлия Савичева





Sinii Platochek by Fabrika





The same song by Tatiana Bulanova

My Favorite Romanian Songs: Copilul De Aur & Laura Vass - Buzele tale

I love Romanian Manele. I believe that this due to my affinity to Gypsies. Being an Indian is not an easy task. I am in love with the music that I found today on the Youtube. The title is Buzele Tale= Your Lips!




>



Poveste de Cartier: Daca nu eu atunci cine







Cine e inima mea

[Job Posting] Visiting Assistant Professor of Russian

Visiting Assistant Professor of Russian


The Department of Russian at Colgate University in Hamilton, NY, seeks a
Visiting Assistant Professor of Russian for a three-year replacement
position, annually renewable, beginning in July 2009.


The candidate isexpected to have or soon receive a PhD in Russian language and literature. Our preferred field of specialization is 19th century literature and
Cultural studies, although we will consider candidates with other or
interdisciplinary expertise.

We place paramount importance upon proven
facility in teaching Russian language at all levels. The successful
candidate will join a strong interdisciplinary Russian Studies program with
colleagues in literature, anthropology, geography, history, film and media
studies, and political science. Teaching duties will include five courses
yearly ranging from beginning through advanced Russian, to 19th century
literature, to the departmental senior seminar. Fluency in Russian and
English is a given, along with a dynamic teaching presence and a strong
commitment to scholarship.

Please send a letter of application and C.V.,
and arrange to have three letters of recommendation sent to Ian Helfant,
Chair, Search Committee, Department of Russian, Colgate University, 13 Oak
Drive, Hamilton, NY 13346. Review of applications will begin March 6, 2009.
Colgate University is an Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Employer.
Developing and sustaining a diverse faculty, student body, and staff further
the University's educational mission.

Conference on "The Changing Social Role of Islam in Post-Soviet Eurasia"

March 20-21, 2009
Harvard University
Project on Islam in Eurasia
CGIS South Room S020
1730 Cambridge St., Cambridge, MA 02138, USA

The Project on Islam in Eurasia will hold a conference on "The Changing Social Role of Islam in Post-Soviet Eurasia" on March 20-21, 2009. The conference will gather a number of the scholars who have been most focused on trying to understand the social transformations in which Islam plays a role in the post-Soviet period.  The purposes of the conference are to assess the current state of scholarship and to identify key issues that deserve further investigation.

This conference is a part of the Project on Islam in Eurasia, which seeks to develop a better understanding of the dynamic changes which are taking place in the social life of post-Soviet Muslim societies. The Project also aims to help this understanding reach a wider audience both in the West and in the region itself, and especially to help policy-makers make more informed decisions related to this topic. Unfortunately, scholarship, public attention, and policy making have been heavily focused on the "problems," "risks," and "threats" that Islam is considered to pose for post-Soviet societies and states, with very little attention being devoted to the broad spectrum of other issues for which Islam plays an important role.  For more information about the focus and activities of the Project on Islam in Eurasia, please see our website (http://islam-eurasia.fas.harvard.edu)

We invite those interested in attending the conference to submit the Registration Form on our website: http://islam-eurasia.fas.harvard.edu/ie_conf_09.html

Please note that while the conference is free and open to the public, the number of attendees that we can accommodate is limited, and we will select attendees, in part on a first-come, first-served basis, but also taking into consideration the prospective attendee's profile, since we are aiming to foster a strong discussion in the conference and audience participation is a crucial part.  The target group of attendees would include scholars and advanced students who are studying themes related to the conference, and those who work in government and development institutions, as well as non-governmental entities which are concerned with social policy and the situation regarding religion in this region.  In completing the form below, please make sure the extent to which you fit this profile (or another profile that could be as relevant for the conference).  Note that we will accommodate others as well as space allows.

The conference will be held in Room S020 on the Concourse Level of the CGIS South Building at Harvard University (1730 Cambridge St., Cambridge, MA 02138, USA).  The public portion of the conference will begin at 9:00 am on Friday, March 20 and conclude at 5:30 pm on Saturday, March 20, 2009.

The following is a list of those who will present papers at the conference with their paper titles (many not yet finalized), and the discussants, who will also play a major role in the conference.  The order of presentations is not yet finalized.  Each presentation, together with the discussant's response and general discussion, will
be given 45 minutes.

Paper Presentations:

Bakhtiyar Babadjanov (Institute of Oriental Studies, Tashkent)
-- TBA [based on field research in Uzbekistan]
Bayram Balci (French Institute for Central Asian Studies, Tashkent)
-- TBA [based on field research in Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan]
Vladimir Bobrovnikov (Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology, Moscow)
-- [Tentative: The Transformation of Shari'a into Communal Rituals in
--   Post-Soviet Daghestani Kolkhozes]
Kathleen Collins (Univ. of Minnesota)
-- TBA [based on survey research and fieldwork in Central Asia and Azerbaijan]
Habiba Fathi (Institute for Ismaili Studies, London)
-- [Tentative: Views of Secularism among Muslim Believers in Central Asia]
Morgan Liu (Ohio State University)
-- TBA [based on fieldwork in Southern Kyrgyzstan]
Maria Louw (Aarhus University)
-- "Navigating Ambiguous Secularisms"
Aleksei Malashenko (Carnegie Center, Moscow)
-- [Tentative: Sufis, the Shari'a, Islamic Education and the State:
    Changes from the 1990s to the Present]
Makhach Musaev (Institute of History, Makhachkala)
-- [Tentative: New Developments in Islamic Education in Daghestan]
Nabi Rahimov (Khujand State University)
-- [Tentative: Islam and Ideas of Nation in Tajikistan]
Rufat Sattarov (Humboldt University, Berlin)
-- "Pillars of 'Local Islam': Religious Practices in Today's
    Azerbaijani Society"
John Schoeberlein (Harvard University)
-- "A Critique of Conceptual Frameworks for Assessing Post-Soviet Islam"
Mukaram Toktogulova (American University of Central Asia, Bishkek)
-- [Tentative: Diverse Visions of Islam in Kyrgyzstan]
Discussants (list is not finalized):

Laura Adams (Harvard University)
Devin DeWeese (Indiana University)
Jocelyne Cesari (Harvard University)
Michael Hall (Open Society Institute, New York)
Ed Schatz (Univ. of Toronto)
Thomas Simons (Harvard University)


For Those Wishing to Attend

If you are interested in attending the conference, please complete the form below.  Please note that space is limited, so only those to whom we send a confirmation will be able to attend the conference.  We will
send additional information about the conference to confirmed attendees as the conference dates approach.

Please note: attendees must find their own resources to cover conference-related expenses, as we have no resources to assist in covering travel or accommodations.  You will also need to make your own arrangements for travel and accommodations.  See our website for additional information (http://islam-eurasia.fas.harvard.edu/ie_conf_09.html).

Eurasia is a three-year project (and perhaps the beginning of longer-term undertakings), so we look forward to future cooperation with those who share this common interest.  For those who are unable to
attend, we would mention that the papers of the conference will be published as a book -- check our website for more information about the Project's future publication.

 

Source:

John Schoeberlein
Director of the Project on Islam in Eurasia and of the Program on
Central Asia and the Caucasus at Harvard University

Stratfor: Erdogan’s Outburst and the future of the Turkish State

Stratfor
---------------------------




Davos Tape of Prime Minister of Turkey -Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: FOR Informational Purposes Only









ERDOGAN'S OUTBURST AND THE FUTURE OF THE TURKISH STATE

By George Friedman

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan exploded during a public discussion with Israeli President Shimon Peres at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last week. Erdogan did not blow up at Peres, but rather at the moderator, Washington Post columnist and associate editor David Ignatius, whom Erdogan accused of giving more time to Peres. Afterward, Erdogan said, "I did not target at all in any way the Israeli people, President Peres or the Jewish people. I am a prime minister, a leader who has expressly stated that anti-Semitism is a crime against humanity."

Nevertheless, the international press focused not on the finer points of Erdogan's reasoning, but rather on his attacks on Israeli policy in Gaza and his angry exit, which many thought were directed at Peres and Israel. The confusion, we suspect, suited Erdogan quite well. Turkey is effectively an ally of Israel. Given this alliance, the recent events in Gaza put Erdogan in a difficult position. The Turkish prime minister needed to show his opposition to Israel's policies to his followers in Turkey's moderate Islamist community without alarming Turkey's military that he was moving to rupture relations with Israel. Whether calculated or not, Erdogan's explosion in Davos allowed him to appear to demonstrate vocal opposition to Israel -- directly to Israel's president, no less -- without actually threatening ties with Israel.

It is important to understand the complexity of Erdogan's political position. Ever since the fall of the Ottoman Empire after World War I, Turkey has had a secular government. The secularism of the government was guaranteed constitutionally by the military, whose role it was to protect the legacy of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk -- the founder of modern, secular Turkey, who used the army as an instrument of nation-building. The Turkish public, in contrast, runs the gamut from ultrasecularists to radical Islamists.

Erdogan is an elected moderate Islamist. As such, he is held in suspicion by the army and severely circumscribed in how far he can go on religious matters. To his right politically are more hard-line Islamist parties, which are making inroads into Turkish public opinion. Erdogan must balance between these forces, avoiding the two extreme outcomes of military intervention and Islamist terrorism.

Meanwhile, from a geopolitical perspective, Turkey is always in an uncomfortable place. Asia Minor is the pivot of Eurasia. It is the land bridge between Asia and Europe, the northern frontier of the Arab world and the southern frontier of the Caucasus. Its influence spreads outward toward the Balkans, Russia, Central Asia, the Arab world and Iran. Alternatively, Turkey is the target of forces emanating from all of these directions. Add to this its control of the Bosporus, which makes Turkey the interface between the Mediterranean and Black Sea, and the complexity of Turkey's position becomes clear: Turkey is always either under pressure from its neighbors or pressuring its neighbors. It is perpetually being drawn outward in multiple directions, even into the eastern Mediterranean.

Turkey has two different paths for dealing with its geopolitical challenge.

Secular Isolationism

From the army's point of view, the Ottoman Empire was a disaster that entangled Turkey into the catastrophe of Word War I. One of Ataturk's solutions involved not only contracting Turkey after the war, but containing it in such a way that it could not be drawn into the extreme risk of imperial adventure.

In World War II, both Axis and Allies wooed and subverted Turkey. But the country managed -- with difficulty -- to maintain neutrality, thereby avoiding another national catastrophe.

During the Cold War, Turkey's position was equally difficult. Facing Soviet pressure from the north, the Turks had to ally themselves with the United States and NATO. Turkey possessed something the Soviets desperately wanted: the Bosporus, which would have given the Soviet navy unimpeded access to the Mediterranean. Naturally, the Turks could not do anything about their geography, nor could they cede the Bosporus to the Soviets without sacrificing their independence. But neither could they protect it by themselves. Thus, left with only the choice of NATO membership, the Turks joined the Western alliance.

There was a high degree of national unity on this subject. Whatever the ideologies involved, the Soviets were viewed as a direct threat to Turkey. Therefore, using NATO and the United States to help guarantee Turkish territorial integrity was ultimately something around which a consensus could form. NATO membership, of course, led to complications, as these things always do.

To counter the American relationship with Turkey (and with Iran, which also blocked Soviet southward movement), the Soviets developed a strategy of alliances -- and subversion -- of Arab countries. First Egypt, then Syria, Iraq and other countries came under Soviet influence between the 1950s and 1970s. Turkey found itself in a vise between the Soviets and Iraq and Syria. And with Egypt -- with its Soviet weapons and advisers -- also in the Soviet orbit, Turkey's southern frontier was seriously threatened.

Turkey had two possible responses to this situation. One was to build up its military and economy to take advantage of its mountainous geography and deter attack. For this, Turkey needed the United States. The second option was to create cooperative relations with other countries in the region that were hostile to both the Soviets and the left-wing Arab regimes. The two countries that fit this bill were Israel and pre-1979 Iran under the shah. Iran tied down Iraq. Israel tied down Syria and Egypt. In effect, these two countries neutralized the threat of Soviet pressure from the south.

Thus was born the Turkish relationship with Israel. Both countries belonged to the American anti-Soviet alliance system and therefore had a general common interest in conditions in the eastern Mediterranean. Both countries also had a common interest in containing Syria. From the standpoint of the Turkish army, and therefore the Turkish government, a close collaboration with Israel made perfect sense.

Islamist Internationalism

There is a second vision of Turkey, however: that of Turkey as a Muslim power with responsibilities beyond guaranteeing its own national security. This viewpoint would of course break the country's relationship with Israel and the United States. In some sense, this is a minor consideration now. Israel is no longer indispensable for Turkish national security, and Turkey has outgrown outright dependence on the United States. (These days, the United States needs Turkey more than Turkey needs the United States.)

(click image to enlarge)

Under this second vision, Turkey would extend its power outward in support of Muslims. This vision, if pursued to the full, would involve Turkey in the Balkans in support of Albanians and Bosnians, for example. It would also see Turkey extend its influence southward to help shape Arab regimes. And it would cause Turkey to become deeply involved in Central Asia, where it has natural ties and influence. Ultimately, this vision also would return Turkey to maritime power status, influencing events in North Africa. It is at its heart a very expansionist vision, and one that would require the active support of a military that, at present, is somewhat squeamish about leaving home.

Along with Indonesia, Pakistan, Iran and Egypt, Turkey is one of only five major powers in the Islamic world with enough economic and military potential to affect anything beyond their immediate neighbors. Indonesia and Pakistan are internally fragmented and struggling to hold together; their potential is largely bottled up. Iran is in a long-term confrontation with the United States and must use all of its strength in dealing with that relationship, limiting its options for expansion. Egypt is internally crippled by its regime and economy, and without significant internal evolutions it cannot project power.

Turkey, on the other hand, is now the world's 17th-largest economy. It boasts a gross domestic product (GDP) that is larger than that of every other Muslim country, including Saudi Arabia; larger than that of every EU country other than Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands; and nearly five times larger than that of Israel. In per capita GDP, Turkey ranks much lower on the global scale, but national power -- the total weight a country can bring to bear on the international system -- frequently depends more on the total size of the economy than on per capita income. (Consider China, which has a per capita income less than half that of Turkey's.) Turkey is surrounded by instability in the Arab world, in the Caucasus and in the Balkans. But it is the most stable and dynamic economy in its region and, after Israel, has the most effective armed forces.

On occasion, Turkey goes beyond its borders. It has, for example, moved into Iraq in a combined air-ground operation to attack units of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, a Kurdish separatist group. But it is Turkey's policy to avoid deep entanglements. From the Turkish Islamist point of view, however, a power of this magnitude under the control of an Islamist regime would be in a position to spread its influence dramatically. As mentioned, this is not what the army or the secularists want: They remember how the Ottoman Empire sapped Turkish strength, and they do not want a repeat.

Erdogan's Challenge and Turkey's Future

It is not fair to say that Turkey is a deeply divided society. Instead, Turkey has learned to blend discord. At the moment, Erdogan probably represents the center of the Turkish political spectrum. But he is stuck trying to balance three competing forces. The first is an economy that remains robust and is likely to grow further despite suffering setbacks (along with the rest of the world). The second is a capable military that does not want excessive foreign entanglements, and certainly not for religious reasons. And the third is an Islamist movement that wants to see Turkey as part of the Islamic world -- and perhaps even the leader of that world.

Erdogan does not want to weaken the Turkish economy, and he sees radical Islamist ideas as endangering Turkey's middle class. He wants to placate the army and keep it from acting politically. He also wants to placate the radical Islamists, who could draw the army out of the barracks, or worse, weaken the economy. Erdogan thus wants to keep business, the military and the religious sector happy simultaneously.

This is no easy task, and Erdogan was clearly furious at Israel for attacking Gaza and making that task harder. Turkey was crucial in developing the Israeli-Syrian dialogue. This means the wider world now views Turkey's leadership as regionally engaged, something its risk-averse military is more than a little touchy about. Erdogan therefore saw Israel as endangering Turkey's military-civilian power balance and squandering its tentative steps into the regional spotlight for what he considered a pointless operation in Gaza.

Still, Erdogan did not want to break with Israel. So he became furious with the moderator. Whether this was calculated or simply reflected his response to the situation he finds himself in is immaterial. The outburst allowed him to appear to break with Israel decisively without actually creating such a rupture. He thus deftly continued to walk his fine line.

The question is how long Erdogan can maintain the balance. The more chaotic the region around Turkey becomes and the stronger Turkey gets, the more irresistible will be the sheer geopolitical pressure on Turkey to fill the vacuum. Add to that an expansionist ideology -- a Turkish Islamism -- and a potent new force in the region could quickly emerge. The one thing that can restrain this process is Russia. If Moscow forces Georgia to submit and brings its forces back to the Turkish border in Armenia, the Turks will have to reorient their policy back to one of blocking the Russians. But regardless of what level Russian power returns to over the next few years, the longer-term growth of Turkish power is inevitable -- and something that must be considered carefully.


This report may be forwarded or republished on your website with attribution to www.stratfor.com.